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Harnessing the Power of Predictable Irrationality
A tale of fear, greed and how to tame the demon within.
Every year many very knowledgeable and technically skilled Forex traders try their hand at currency trading. They learn all they can about the market, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, trading strategies, indicators, etc. They try every rational system they can get their hands on. They implement every strategy known to science. They leave no stone unturned in the quest for the holy grail of trading systems. Yet, every year, the huge majority burn and falter. I must admit to having been one of these who repeatedly failed time and time again. |
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After trying desperately for nearly three years, I came to the conclusion that successful Forex trading was possible only for those with superior information or advanced skills. After all, I didn’t know many people who were successfully making money trading currencies. I had heard stories, but didn’t really know anyone personally who was consistently doing well. Only the big money managers, with superior tools and information were making money, right?
Are You Losing Your Pants Trading Forex? Still can’t make it happen, can you? What are you doing wrong? 1. Failing to use sound Forex Trading Psychology A New Discovery About Forex Trader Behaviour People make the strangest decisions when trading. They buy when they should be selling and sell when they should be buying. They add to losing positions and double up when they are down. They avoid the market during the most profitable opportunities and refuse to get out when things are at their most risky. In retrospect, they make decisions that any reasonable person would clearly see as being against their best interests. Of course, these “reasonable persons” are not “in the trade” with money at stake. The reasonable person is not impaired by the two twin evils of a trader – fear and greed. Fear and greed are the twin evils that can cause even the most knowledgeable and astute trader to fail. They lead to the phenomena of bias, emotional trading and overconfidence. These are the silent killers of all things good in currency trading. To illustrate, I would painfully like to recount some of my own experiences. I can remember a time when my ratio of winning trades to losing trades was 4:1 and yet I still lost money. For those of you who are new to Forex trading, this means that out of every ten trades I took, I was successful 8 times. Pretty impressive statistic, isn’t it? Why am I telling you this? Well, not to impress you, thats for sure. Instead, I want to impress UPON YOU that notwithstanding such a phenomenal win ratio, I LOST MONEY!!! Why? Poor trading psychology and poor money management techniques. I had honed my actual strategies to such a polished extent that I could generate an 80% winning record over a substantial number of trades, say, 40 or 50 trades, and yet I still managed to lose money. Sound incredible? Well, let me tell you, it was real and in retrospect, it is pretty hard to do. You have to make some pretty stupid trading decisions to fail with those kinds of numbers. But I was a master of irrationality. In fact, the more successful I became at times, the harder I fell afterwards. Does this, by any chance, seem familiar to you? Are you experiencing some of the same frustrations? If so, I would bet anything that the same twin evils are robbing you of your success in Forex trading. There is Hope! Social Scientists to the Rescue The Cure The question is, how do we know when to expect irrationality and how do we cure this. Combined with proper money management techniques, we can ensure that our psychology is working for us rather than against us to ensure success in our trading. How do We Implement this Knowledge Fortunately, like the alcoholic who finally admits he has a problem, once the trader recognizes that his failure is self-imposed, he can begin to address the problem. Just like the trader himself has neglected this most important aspect of his trading methodology, the industry itself has largely neglected the importance of trader psychology until recently. Fortunately, some seminal works during the past ten years have shed some light on the topic and we now have some good sources to go to for help. Don’t forget to register for all of our free Articles, Videos and Tutorials available in our members area as well.
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